Do you want Trump to run in 2024?

It's the GOP question of the year

Fox News’ Bret Baier asked House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy recently if he wants former President Donald Trump to run for president again. McCarthy did not answer the first time.

The second time, McCarthy hedged. “Look, Donald Trump has to make that decision,” the House GOP leader responded.

Not a hearty yes. Not a no. Hesitation where once was enthusiasm. Because really, Republican politicians have spent the last four years serving as Trump hostages with guns to their heads and muzzles over their mouths.

They don’t want to alienate the base, but they don’t want to relive losing Georgia, the Senate and the White House.

Most Republicans I know are thinking that Trump cannot win in 2024. After Jan. 6, some Republicans who voted for Trump in 2020 are not sure they’d vote for him if he won the nomination in 2024.

This morning, Politico has a story about sluggish ticket sales for a joint Trump-Bill O’Reilly tour that shows how tenuous Trump’s supremacy in the GOP may have become.

Not that O’Reilly sees it that way. He told Politico:

“We have more than $7 million in the bank. We haven’t spent a nickel on marketing, nothing. All those 7 million for four shows were done on the announcement. Marketing will start in about a week. Nobody has sold tickets this fast at this price, and VIPs are sold out at 3 of the 4 venues.”

One difference may be how supporters get tickets for the Donald & Bill show.

In 2016 and 2020, the Trump campaign essentially gave tickets to people who asked for them on line. And there were a lot more tickets than seats. So supporters would show up early to stand in line to make sure they got inside. Those who didn’t watched from overflow areas. In the meantime, the lines and crowds generated buzz.

According to Politico, Most Trump-O’Reilly tickets are selling for $100 - $300. On the one hand, that can add up, especially if you were thinking of taking the family.

On the other hand, if you get a ticket, you know it will give you a seat.

So consider McCarthy’s lukewarm embrace and sluggish ticket sales as signs that Trump’s grip is loosening over the GOP.

Debra J. Saunders is a fellow at the Discovery Institute's Chapman Center for Citizen Leadership. Contact her at dsaunders@discovery.org.